中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)

美国特朗普政府发起的中美贸易战看起来是偶然事件,但是追溯中美两国在经济发展理念、公平价值观认知,以及两国处于全球价值链的差异来看,贸易摩擦又存在一定的必然性,加上新冠疫情的叠加影响,中美贸易的博弈成为我国政府必须面对的突出问题。运用不完美信息动态博弈模型分析中美贸易博弈的成本和预期收益,基于理性模型和实践经验得出:两国互增关税的贸易战最终结果是双输,中美双方只有达成合作才能实现共赢,新冠疫情进一步加剧了两国的战略博弈。中国应强化博弈意识,建立长中短期相结合的、动态的博弈策略,最大限度地消除中美贸易的不确定性,寻求可持续的合作发展。

The irrational trade war between China and the United States initiated by the US Trump administration seems accidental; however, looking back at the differences between China and the United States in the concept of economic development, the perception of fair values and the global value chain, trade friction between two countries is inevitable. Coupled with the impact of COVID-19, the trade game between China and the United States has become a problem that our government must face. This paper analyzes the costs and expected benefits of Sino-US trade game by using imperfect information dynamic game model. Based on the rational model and practical experience, it comes to the conclusion that the final result of the trade war of mutual tariff increase will lead to a no-win situation. Only by cooperation can we achieve win-win results, and the epidemic situation further intensifies the strategic game between the two countries. China should strengthen the sense of game, establish a dynamic game strategy for a long, medium and short term, so as to eliminate the uncertainty of Sino-US trade and seek cooperative sustainable development.