中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)

在过去的五十年中,《南极条约》有效维护了南极洲的和平,促进了国际南极科学合作,为国际社会提供了解决有争议问题的"南极模式"。但近年来现有的"南极秩序"正在面临着来自各方面的严峻挑战,《南极条约》的未来走向受到国际社会的强烈关注。目前存在三种未来走向:《南极条约》解体、南极"联合国化"而变为人类共同财产以及《南极条约》继续存在。由于《南极条约》高举和平与科学的旗帜,以及南极条约协商国家的强大政治经济实力,在可预见的未来,现行的《南极条约》仍是规划南极事务最现实的选择。

In the last 50 years the Antarctic Treaty has effectively maintained peace on the Antarctic Continent as well as helping promote international Antarctic scientific cooperation.The Antarctic Treaty now also serves as an approach to resolving international conflict,which is known as the "Antarctic Model".However,Antarctic politics have changed significantly in the recent years and the traditional Antarctic order is facing severe challenges.The future of the Antarctic Treaty has aroused wide attention in the international community.There are three different trends for the Treaty's future:(1) that the Antarctic Treaty will disintegrate due to some signatories withdrawing;(2) that Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings(ATCM) will look more and more like United Nations gatherings with more and more states acceding to the Treaty,which will enable Antarctica to become part of the common wealth of human beings;or,(3),that the Antarctic Treaty carries on as it is at present.Because the Antarctic Treaty promotes peace and science research,and also because the principal members of the ATCM have tremendous political and economic power,it is likely that the existing order of the Antarctic Treaty will be the only realistic choice among the three above options in the foreseeable future.