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随着印度智库在莫迪政府对华外交政策制定过程中的重要性日益提升，研究印度智库对华“以海制陆”战略的观点主张，对于中国促进中印边境局势向好发展以及制定合理应对措施而言具有重要意义。本研究基于不对称冲突理论，选取印度7家具有较大影响力智库并运用文献分析法对其中21份相关文献进行分析。结果表明，印度智库对华“以海制陆”观点体现了弱国以间接性对抗、持久性作战、模糊性时效以及多样性战法为依托的不对称行动路径，具体则包括“做好长期冲突准备，威慑中国印度洋航道”与“联合外部制衡力量，进军中国南海海上后方”两种行动路径认知。印度对华“以海制陆”战略凭借其深厚的战略思想基础、印度海军实力的显著提升以及高度契合莫迪政府现实政治需求的特性，即便是在中印关系呈现缓和态势的背景下，依然保持着一定的发展潜力与前景。对此，中国可借助缓和契机建立沟通机制，以设法推动中印边界问题最终解决；依法回击可能的挑衅行为，以维护国家主权和领土完整；并揭示印度行动的本质，以塑造有利国际舆论。
Abstract：With the growing influence of Indian think tanks in shaping the Modi government′s China policy, examining their advocacy of the "using sea to control land" strategy against China is of great significance for China in promoting de-escalation along the China-India border and formulating appropriate response measures. Drawing on asymmetric conflict theory, this study analyzes 21 relevant documents by seven influential Indian think tanks through a literature analysis approach. The findings show that Indian think tanks′ perspectives on the "using sea to control land" strategy reflect an asymmetric action path typically adopted by a weaker power, characterized by indirect confrontation, protracted operations, ambiguous temporal horizons, and diversified tactical approaches. Specifically, these perspectives emphasize two main action paths: preparing for long-term conflict in order to deter China′s maritime routes in the Indian Ocean, and cooperating with external balancing forces to advance into the maritime rear areas of China′s South China Sea. Owing to its solid strategic intellectual foundations, the significant enhancement of India′s naval capabilities, and its strong alignment with the Modi government′s realpolitik needs, India′s "using sea to control land" strategy against China continues to retain a certain degree of developmental potential and prospects, even in the context of easing China-India relations. In response, China should seize the opportunities for détente to establish communication mechanisms aimed at facilitating the eventual resolution of border issues, respond to possible provocations in accordance with the law to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and expose the underlying nature of India′s actions in order to shape a favorable international public opinion environment.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16497/j.cnki.1672-335X.202601009
中图分类号:D822.335.1;C932
引用信息:
[1]姜波.印度智库对华“以海制陆”观点评析——基于不对称冲突理论的视角[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2026,No.210(01):112-124.DOI:10.16497/j.cnki.1672-335X.202601009.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金青年项目(24CGJ069)